Arch Manning is making waves in the college football world. He is not holding back even a bit. He knows the baggage of mammoth expectations that he brings to the table as the new Longhorns starter. But that’s far too meek to make him doubt his ability under the center. But wait, Manning isn’t just another regular quarterback aiming to sip the Texas tea. He is there to reach for the stars. The NFL is already making a buzz. Scouts are eagerly anticipating Arch’s arrival in the draft. Some trusted reports suggested that the NFL teams have already started to wave at him as a high-value 2026 prospect. So, does the Manning dynasty in Texas come with an expiration date before it kicks off? Fortunately, this is not the case.
When it comes to loyalty, the third-generation Manning is second to none. He has been riding behind the bar as a Quinn Ewers backup for over two years and has never said a word. He patiently awaited his turn and excelled when it finally arrived. During that UL Monroe and Mississippi State game, Arch started in place of Quinn Ewers. He was electric in his limited playtime under the center and as a backup, capping off the season with 939 passing yards and nine touchdowns. Fans started to vouch for him to lead the Texas offense permanently, and it eventually manifested when Ewers left for the pros.
Arch made it no secret that the journey was frustrating at times. But his unwavering passion as a fan helped him survive. It is Texas he always wanted to be, after all. But given the hype he’s already getting from the pros, will it be wise to jump to the NFL after a year? Well, analyst Brent Rollins doesn’t believe so. During the April 17th episode of See Ball Get Ball with David Pollack, he gave serious food for thought. “The way I’m looking at it is that more of a short-term sacrifice for the long-term game. Because in the world, especially in the quarterback world, by the way, in the way the NFL exists now, this isn’t about the maybe $10 million that you make as a college quarterback. This is if you really think you have that level of talent.”
Arch is a supreme talent. No doubt about that. But is he seasoned enough to start in the pros? Come on, he hasn’t yet started full-time in college. He needs to do that and let the momentum settle for a year or more. Thus far, he only has two starts under his belt at the college level, which is three-quarters of a game against a pretty average team in UTSA. So, seeing him as an early-round pick for 2026, just with a huge NIL backup, doesn’t sound feasible.
Arch’s NIL value soared to a whopping $6.5 million with plenty of lucrative deals in his bucket. But if he takes his time and emerges as an elite NFL prospect, his salary cap will surpass that math like a peregrine falcon. “Look at Kirk Cousins’ career earnings. It’s like $350 million like compared to what he made in the NIL. This is about the long-term game for me if I’m looking at it from a quarterback perspective,” Rollins echoed the same sense in a relevant market comparison.
The Texas quarterback also might not want to sail his Texas boat this early. He is likely to enjoy his dream ride with the team for a while. “Hey, look, I need to just keep getting better, keep getting better, even if I have a good year at Texas, I’m going to come back and play again because it’s just going to help me get better in the long run,” Rollins rightly mind-read the probable headspace of the 20-year-old.
So, Steve Sarkisian can chill for a couple of years now. Wait, can he sit back and chill? A looming roster flaw raises the hair.
Steve Sarkisian received a schedule advantage flak
Texas seems to be caught up in the middle of a scheduling imbalance. Josh Pate has already complained about how Texas has had an edge over the SEC’s easiest schedule last year compared to Florida and Oklahoma. Now, David Pollack seconded him, saying the same thing over a big Sarkisian loophole in their 13-3 season.
“Texas would not have made the playoff last year with Oklahoma’s schedule.”, Pollack said, “I mean, it’s just unfortunate that they got the draw, that they got Venable’s obviously squarely on the hot seat. This is going to be a tough year, but it’s just, I think again, Brent if a team’s very competitive and you take that next step, defense is good, now the offense goes to the next level, you’re competing in all these games, they’re not blowouts like last year”.
The Longhorns will be traveling to Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Georgia this year. They will fight Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Texas A&M in the home games. They might face challenges against the defending SEC champions, Georgia. Florida and Texas A&M could also pose a threat, but they don’t appear to have a clear advantage. Otherwise, Sarkisian can easily get out through the other bouts on his cards.
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